Five things to look for in Canada’s election

Canada’s general election campaign is underway, a 36-day sprint taking place in unprecedented circumstances.

Voters will be mulling which party should govern the country just as the US – its neighbour and largest economic partner – launches a trade war and President Donald Trump muses about making Canada the 51st US state.

Domestic issues like housing and immigration will still be important, of course, but for the first time in decades, Canadians will also be grappling with fundamental questions about the country’s future when they head to the ballot box on 28 April.

Here are five things to watch as the campaign unfolds.

The ties between Canada and the US have been remarkably strong – until now. The neighbours share deeply integrated economies, a long-standing security partnership and the longest “undefended” border in the world.

So when President Donald Trump says he wants to use “economic force” against Canada, calls the border an “artificially drawn line” and imposes tariffs on imported goods, it marks a profound shift in the relationship between the two allies.

“It is impossible to overstate the impact of the president’s actions on Canadian politics, on Canadian psyche, on Canadian business,” said Marci Surkes, chief strategy officer at public affairs firm Compass Rose and a former policy director to ex-prime minister Justin Trudeau.

That means this general election is as much about the US’s relationship with Canada as it is about domestic policies within Canada itself.

On Sunday, all the party leaders focused their campaign launch messages heavily on the US threats.

What Trump says and does over the next few weeks will inevitably factor into the race. On April 2, for example, in just the second week of campaigning, the White House is expected to announce more global tariffs.

His interventions have already reshaped politics in Canada, helping transform what seemed like a certain Conservative victory into a too-close-to-call battle with the Liberals.

The US president weighed in recently, telling Fox News host Laura Ingraham – without naming either major party leader – that the Conservative is “stupidly, no friend of mine” and that it may be “easier to deal actually with a Liberal”.

Ultimately, he added, who wins “doesn’t matter to me at all”.

Canadians know their next PM will have no choice but to deal with Donald Trump.

So the question on many voters’ minds is: Who can most capably handle the unpredictable US president?

The contest essentially boils down to two men: Liberal Mark Carney and Conservative Pierre Poilievre.

Two other major parties will be contesting seats in Parliament – the left-leaning New Democrats (NDP) and the the Bloc Québécois – but Canadians have historically elected Conservative or Liberal governments.

The Green Party and the People’s Party of Canada are also in the race.

Carney and Poilievre have very different resumes.

Carney is a former central banker who is new to politics – after taking over from Justin Trudeau, he became the first prime minister in Canada never elected to Parliament.

He brings experience on the world stage but lacks time spent in the cut and thrust of political campaigning, and will get his first real test in this general election.

If the Liberals fail to win the election, he could have the shortest tenure of any PM in the country’s history.

Poilievre, 45, became party leader in 2022. First elected to the House of Commons at age 25, he has two decades of experience in federal politics, including time in cabinet, and is known for his political acumen.

He was quick to highlight the pain that inflation was inflicting on Canadian families, and capitalise on the broader anger at Trudeau and the Liberals on issues like immigration.

His tag line “Canada is broken” has in recent weeks become “Canada first”. The shift in message from a country in decline to one of patriotism and strength comes as he tries to portray himself as able to stand up to Trump.

He is “the consummate retail politician”, Ms Surkes said, but “suffers from having – right now – a brand and a narrative that no longer fits the moment”.

This election is about the big, national questions: Canada’s sovereignty and what the country must do to face an uncertain future with uncertain allies.

It’s the first time in decades that an election is not focused mostly on domestic issues, said Ms Surkes. She pointed to the 1988 election, when Canada’s relationship with the US was also at the centre of debate as the country mulled joining the North American Free Trade Agreement, a trade pact that was the precursor to the current trilateral USMCA.

“The same types of questions were being asked in terms of whether there would be a forfeiture of Canadian sovereignty, economic sovereignty, economic independence,” she said.

This time, both parties are pushing a vision of growth – building much-needed housing, moving forward on major energy and resource projects, and bolstering Canada’s defence capabilities.

They each speak of being willing to retaliate as Canada best can against US tariffs.

So where are the differences?

Carney, who has moved the Liberals more towards the political centre as he sought to distance himself from Trudeau’s record.

He has promised to “spend less and invest more” and to boost capital investments in things like housing, and military infrastructure and computing resources.

Poilievre, a fiscal hawk, is taking a small government approach by focusing on cutting red tape and taxes to boost industry and spur infrastructure investment and home building.

The Conservatives have also focused more sharply on issues like crime.

The major domestic concerns that Canadians have had in recent years – affordability, housing, healthcare – remain.

But pollster David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, said they have been subsumed by the “existential threat” of the trade war with the US.

Two words – Trump and tariffs – “sum up the psyche of the country right now”, he said.

He adds: “Even if the cost of living is still the top issue, it may not be as powerful a motivator to drive voting behavior.”

So the parties will need to come up with convincing policies to address these concerns – but frame them in the context of the wider economic threat.

The Trump levies on Canada’s exports, the uncertainty caused by their on-again-off-again nature, and Canada’s C$60bn in counter tariffs, are already being felt by businesses and communities across the country.

This week, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development more than halved its growth outlook for Canada this year and next due to the growing tariff threat.

National opinion polls have seen a stunning reversal in recent weeks, with the Conservatives losing the 20-point lead they had over the Liberals for the better part of a year.

As the race officially begins, it’s a toss-up.

Mr Coletto said three factors led to the “perfect storm” in polling: the resignation of the deeply unpopular Trudeau, the Liberal leadership race which that sparked, and the return of Donald Trump to the White House.

The latter was by far the main driver “fundamentally shifting the trajectory of Canadian politics”, he said.

Both candidates now are trying to “bring their enemies to the battlefield”, he added – Carney is seeking to paint Poilievre as a “Trump-light”, while Poilievre suggests Carney is “just like Justin”.

Both campaigns have some natural advantages, he said.

The Conservatives have “an animated base who desperately want a change in government”, along with a well-funded political machine.

The Liberals currently “have the advantage on narrative” that has helped shift the polls more in their favour.

The other two official parties – the NDP and the Bloc – have both seen their popularity diminish.

The left-leaning NDP, which had 24 seats at dissolution, helped prop up the Liberal minority government in recent years in exchange for support for progressive policies like dental care for low-income Canadians.

But leader Jagmeet Singh has been pushing hard against Carney, seeking to frame him as someone who will “protect billionaires and big business”.

Bloc leader Blanchet said on Sunday he would fight for Quebec companies and workers struggling under US tariffs, especially in the aluminium industry.

One issue may cause fireworks in the campaign – an east-west energy pipeline. Western Canada is keen to build more capacity to gets its product to market, but the infrastructure in widely opposed in the province.